Achieving universal health coverage and sustainable development goals by 2030: investment estimates to increase production of health professionals in India.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has reinforced the importance of having a sufficient, well-distributed and competent health workforce. In addition to improving health outcomes, increased investment in health has the potential to generate employment, increase labour productivity and foster economic growth. We estimate the required investment for increasing the production of the health workforce in India for achieving the UHC/SDGs. METHODS: We used data from National Health Workforce Account 2018, Periodic Labour Force Survey 2018-19, population projection of Census of India, and government documents and reports. We distinguish between total stock of health professionals and active health workforce. We estimated current shortages in the health workforce using WHO and ILO recommended health worker:population ratio thresholds and extrapolated the supply of health workforce till 2030, using a range of scenarios of production of doctors and nurses/midwives. Using unit costs of opening a new medical college/nursing institute, we estimated the required levels of investment to bridge the potential gap in the health workforce. RESULTS: To meet the threshold of 34.5 skilled health workers per 10 000 population, there will be a shortfall of 0.16 million doctors and 0.65 million nurses/midwives in the total stock and 0.57 million doctors and 1.98 million nurses/midwives in active health workforce by the year 2030. The shortages are higher when compared with a higher threshold of 44.5 health workers per 10 000 population. The estimated investment for the required increase in the production of health workforce ranges from INR 523 billion to 2 580 billion for doctors and INR 1 096 billion for nurses/midwives. Such investment during 2021-2025 has the potential of an additional employment generation within the health sector to the tune of 5.4 million and to contribute to national income to the extent of INR 3 429 billion annually. CONCLUSION: India needs to significantly increase the production of doctors and nurses/midwives through investing in opening up new medical colleges. Nursing sector should be prioritized to encourage talents to join nursing profession and provide quality education. India needs to set up a benchmark for skill-mix ratio and provide attractive employment opportunities in the health sector to increase the demand and absorb the new graduates.

Optimal governance and implementation of vaccination programmes to contain the COVID-19 pandemic.

Since the recent introduction of several viable vaccines for SARS-CoV-2, vaccination uptake has become the key factor that will determine our success in containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that game theory and social network models should be used to guide decisions pertaining to vaccination programmes for the best possible results. In the months following the introduction of vaccines, their availability and the human resources needed to run the vaccination programmes have been scarce in many countries. Vaccine hesitancy is also being encountered from some sections of the general public. We emphasize that decision-making under uncertainty and imperfect information, and with only conditionally optimal outcomes, is a unique forte of established game-theoretic modelling. Therefore, we can use this approach to obtain the best framework for modelling and simulating vaccination prioritization and uptake that will be readily available to inform important policy decisions for the optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic.